BlueChip Breakdown: ExxonMobile

By Will Svendsen

Date: 09/04/2025

📊 Valuation at a Glance

• Price (Sep 4, 2025): $112.42.

• Market Cap: ~$479B. CompaniesMarketCap

• P/E (TTM): ~16.0x. MacrotrendsCompaniesMarketCap

• Dividend: $0.99 quarterly declared for Q3 2025, payable Sep 10 to holders of record Aug 15. Implied yield about 3.5% at today’s price. ExxonMobil

• Q2 2025 results: Earnings $7.1B, EPS $1.64, CFO $11.5B, FCF $5.4B. Shareholder distributions $9.2B including $5.0B buybacks and $4.3B dividends. Management says they are on pace for $20B buybacks in 2025. ExxonMobil

• Production: 4.6 million boe/d in Q2, the highest second-quarter since the Exxon–Mobil merger. ExxonMobil

• Leverage: Debt-to-capital 13% and net-debt-to-capital 8% as of Q2. ExxonMobil

🛢️ The Breakdown

1) What changed this week

Exxon is exploring a sale of European chemical plants in the UK and Belgium. Reports suggest early-stage talks that could fetch up to $1B. If executed, this would continue the portfolio tilt toward higher-return assets. ReutersFinancial Times

2) Operations and cash returns

Record Q2 production plus disciplined spending supported strong cash generation and consistent capital returns. With $9.2B returned in Q2 and guidance to repurchase $20B of stock in 2025, shareholder yield remains a core part of the thesis. ExxonMobil

3) Why chemicals matter

European chemicals face margin pressure from high costs and competition, prompting sector-wide closures and disposals. Exxon's potential divestiture aligns with this backdrop and could recycle capital to Permian and Guyana growth. Reuters

4) Risk checks

Results remain sensitive to crude prices, refining margins, and chemicals cycle. Monitor Brent strip, refining indicators, and any update on the European asset review. ExxonMobilReuters

✅ Final Rating: BUY

Why: Solid balance sheet, 3.5% dividend supported by cash flow, ongoing buybacks targeting $20B in 2025, and record upstream volumes provide a sturdy total-return setup. Near-term upside is not solely multiple-driven. It is supported by operational growth and potential portfolio optimization from European chemicals. ExxonMobilReuters